Feinberg Forecast: Updated Oscar Projections a Week Before the Start of Final Voting

PLEASE NOTE: This forecast, assembled by Scott Feinberg, The Hollywood Reporter’s executive editor of awards coverage, reflects Scott’s best attempt to predict the behavior of the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences, not his personal preferences. He arrives at these projections by drawing upon conversations with voters and other industry insiders, analysis of marketing and awards campaigns, results of awards ceremonies that precede the Oscars and the history of the Oscars itself. There will be regular updates to reflect new developments.

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Best Picture

Nominees
1. Oppenheimer (Universal)
2. The Zone of Interest (A24)
3. Poor Things (Searchlight)
4. Anatomy of a Fall (Neon)
5. Barbie (Warner Bros.)
6. The Holdovers (Focus)
7. Killers of the Flower Moon (Apple)
8. Maestro (Netflix)
9. American Fiction (Amazon/MGM)
10. Past Lives (A24)

Best Director

Nominees
1. Christopher Nolan (Oppenheimer)
2. Jonathan Glazer (The Zone of Interest)
3. Martin Scorsese (Killers of the Flower Moon) — podcast
4. Yorgos Lanthimos (Poor Things)
5. Justine Triet (Anatomy of a Fall)

Best Actor

Nominees
1. Cillian Murphy (Oppenheimer) — podcast
2. Paul Giamatti (The Holdovers) — podcast
3. Bradley Cooper (Maestro)
4. Jeffrey Wright (American Fiction)
5. Colman Domingo (Rustin)

Best Actress

Nominees
1. Lily Gladstone (Killers of the Flower Moon)
2. Emma Stone (Poor Things) — podcast
3. Sandra Hüller (Anatomy of a Fall)
4. Annette Bening (Nyad) — podcast
5. Carey Mulligan (Maestro) — podcast

Best Supporting Actor

Nominees
1. Robert Downey Jr. (Oppenheimer)
2. Mark Ruffalo (Poor Things)
3. Ryan Gosling (Barbie)
4. Robert De Niro (Killers of the Flower Moon) — podcast
5. Sterling K. Brown (American Fiction) — podcast

Best Supporting Actress

Nominees
1. Da’Vine Joy Randolph (The Holdovers)
2. America Ferrera (Barbie)
3. Emily Blunt (Oppenheimer) — podcast
4. Jodie Foster (Nyad) — podcast
5. Danielle Brooks (The Color Purple) — podcast

Best Adapted Screenplay

Nominees
1. Oppenheimer (Christopher Nolan)
2. Barbie (Noah Baumbach & Greta Gerwig) — podcast (Gerwig)
3. The Zone of Interest (Jonathan Glazer)
4. American Fiction (Cord Jefferson)
5. Poor Things (Tony McNamara)

Best Original Screenplay

Nominees
1. Anatomy of a Fall (Arthur Harari & Justine Triet)
2. The Holdovers (David Hemingson)
3. Past Lives (Celine Song)
4. Maestro (Bradley Cooper & Josh Singer)
5. May December (Samy Burch & Alex Mechanik)

Best International Feature

Nominees
1. The Zone of Interest (United Kingdom)
2. Society of the Snow (Spain)
3. The Teacher’s Lounge (Germany)
4. Perfect Days (Japan) — podcast (Wim Wenders)
5. Io Capitano (Italy)

Best Documentary Feature

Nominees
1. 20 Days in Mariupol (PBS)
2. Bobi Wine: The People’s President (Nat Geo)
3. The Eternal Memory (MTV)
4. Four Daughters (Kino Lorber)
5. To Kill a Tiger (still seeking U.S. distribution)

Best Animated Feature

Nominees
1. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (Sony)
2. The Boy and the Heron (GKIDS)
3. Nimona (Netflix)
4. Elemental (Pixar) — podcast (Pete Docter)
5. Robot Dreams (Neon)

Best Cinematography

Nominees
1. Oppenheimer (Hoyte van Hoytema)
2. Poor Things (Robbie Ryan)
3. Killers of the Flower Moon (Rodrigo Prieto)
4. Maestro (Matthew Libatique)
5. El Conde (Edward Lachman)

Best Costume Design

Nominees
1. Barbie (Jacqueline Durran)
2. Poor Things (Holly Waddington)
3. Oppenheimer (Ellen Mirojnick)
4. Killers of the Flower Moon (Jacqueline West)
5. Napoleon (David Crossman & Janty Yates)

Best Film Editing

Nominees
1. Oppenheimer (Jennifer Lame)
2. Poor Things (Yorgos Mavropsaridis)
3. The Holdovers (Kevin Tent)
4. Killers of the Flower Moon (Thelma Schoonmaker)
5. Anatomy of a Fall (Laurent Sénéchal)

Best Makeup & Hairstyling

Nominees
1. Maestro (Kay Georgiou, Kazu Hiro & Lori McCoy-Bell)
2. Poor Things (Mark Couler, Nadia Stacey & Josh Weston)
3. Golda (Suzi Battersby, Ashra Kelly-Blue & Karen Hartley Thomas)
4. Oppenheimer (Luisa Abel)
5. Society of the Snow (Ana López-Puigcerver, David Martí & Montse Ribé)

Best Original Score

Nominees
1. Oppenheimer (Ludwig Göransson)
2. Killers of the Flower Moon (Robbie Robertson)
3. Poor Things (Jerskin Fendrix)
4. American Fiction (Laura Karpman)
5. Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny (John Williams)

Best Original Song

Nominees
1. “What Was I Made For?” (Barbie), Billie Eilish & Finneas — podcasts (1 and 2)
2. “I’m Just Ken” (Barbie), Mark Ronson & Andrew Wyatt — podcast (Ronson)
3. “Wahzhazhe (A Song For My People)” (Killers of the Flower Moon), Scott George
4. “It Never Went Away” (American Symphony), Jon Batiste & Dan Wilson — podcast (Batiste)
5. “The Fire Inside” (Flamin’ Hot), Diane Warren — podcast

Best Production Design

Nominees
1. Barbie (Sarah Greenwood & Katie Spencer)
2. Oppenheimer (Ruth De Jong & Claire Kaufman)
3. Killers of the Flower Moon (Jack Fisk & Adam Willis)
4. Poor Things (Shona Heath, James Price & Szusza Mihalek)
5. Napoleon (Elli Griff & Arthur Max)

Best Sound

Nominees
1. Oppenheimer (Willie Burton, Richard King, Kevin O’Connell & Gary A. Rizzo)
2. The Zone of Interest (Johnnie Burn & Tarn Willers)
3. Maestro (Richard King, Steve Morrow, Tom Ozanich, Jason Ruder & Dean Zupancic)
4. Mission: Impossible – Dead Reckoning Part One (Chris Burdon, Chris Munro, James H. Mather & Mark Taylor)
5. The Creator (Ian Voigt, Erik Aadahl, Ethan Van der Ryn, Tom Ozanich & Dean Zupancic)

Best Visual Effects

Nominees
1. Godzilla: Minus One (Tatsuji Nojima, Kiyoko Shibuya, Masaki Takahashi & Takashi Yamazaki)
2. Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3 (Theo Bialek, Stephanie Ceretti, Alexis Wajsbrot & Guy Williams)
3. Mission: Impossible — Dead Reckoning, Part One (Neil Corbould, Simone Coco, Jeff Sutherland & Alex Wuttke)
4. Napoleon (Simone Coco, Neil Corbould, Charley Henley & Luc-Ewen Martin-Fenouillet)
5. The Creator (Ian Comley, Jay Cooper, Neil Corbould & Andrew Roberts)

Best Animated Short

Nominees
1. War Is Over! Inspired by the Music of John & Yoko (Brad Booker & Dave Mullins)
2. Ninety-Five Senses (Jared Hess & Jerusha Hess)
3. Letter to a Pig (Amit R. Gicelter & Tal Kantor)
4. Our Uniform (Yegane Moghaddam)
5. Pachyderme (Stéphanie Clément & Marc Rius)

Best Documentary Short

Nominees
1. The ABCs of Book Banning (Trish Adlesic & Sheila Nevins) — podcast (Nevins)
2. Nǎi Nai & Wài Pó (Sam Davis & Sean Wang)
3. The Last Repair Shop (Kris Bowers & Ben Proudfoot)
4. The Barber of Little Rock (John Hoffman & Christine Turner)
5. Island in Between (S. Leo Chiang & Jean Tsien)

Best Live-Action Short

Nominees
1. The Wonderful Story of Henry Sugar (Wes Anderson & Steven Rales)
2. Invincible (Samuel Caron & Vincent René-Lortie)
3. Red, White and Blue (Nazrin Choudhury & Sara McFarlane)
4. Knight of Fortune (Lasse Lyskjær Noer & Christian Norlyk)
5. The After (Nicky Bentham & Misan Harriman)