Box Office Preview: Bob Marley ‘One Love’ Biopic to Break ‘Madame Web’s’ Heart on Valentine’s Day

Valentine’s Day and Presidents Day will host a six-day box office race between two films that could bring some surprises and drama as Paramount’s Bob Marley: One Love biopic goes up against Sony’s supehero offering Madame Web.

Both films are opening everywhere on Wednesday to take advantage of sweethearts wanting to go the movies on Valentine’s Day. Advance ticket sales and very early returns show One Love winning the day.

Both also open in the leadup to the long President’s Day weekend, with the official holiday falling on Monday. The combo of the two holidays means that both films will report a six-day opening.

Tracking suggests that One Love could beat Madame Web with $30 million for the six days (one tracking service is giving a range of $27 million to $33 million). In past years, a superhero pic would generally be the safe bet to win, but times have changed as both DC and Marvel Studios regroup after a number of box office setbacks. Madame Web is from Sony, which has the rights to Marvel’s Spider-Man universe of characters and includes titles such as Venom and Morbius.

One Love, director Reinaldo Marcus Green’s depiction of the iconic Jamaican musician and Rastafarian, stars Kingsley Ben-Adir. It chronicles Marley making his 1977 album Exodus and the ensuing events of the next several years, including an attempted assassination attempt and Marley’s belief that music could heal his nation in the post-Colonial era.

The movie’s producers include Marley’s children Ziggy and Cedella, and wife Rita. Critics are lukewarm so far; as of Wednesday morning, One Love has a 39 percent critics score on Rotten Tomatoes. Paramount is confident that the $70 million film be embraced by audiences, and hopes it can replicate the success of Elton John biopic Rocketman, also a Paramount title, and Warner Bros.’ Elvis.

If critics aren’t feeling in totally harmony with One Love, they are completely taken aback by Madame Web. The first studio superhero pic of 2024 currently rests at dismal 13 percent on Rotten Tomatoes.

Tracking has Madame Web posting a six-day launch in the $25 million range, although Sony is being more conservative in sticking with $22 million. The movie cost a reported $80 million to produce — a relatively modest number for superhero fare — and it certainly doesn’t lack for star power between Johnson, Sydney Sweeney, Adam Scott, Isabela Merced and Celeste O’Connor in this tale of a clairvoyant paramedic.

Because Madame Web is opening over a six-day stretch, it will be tough to compare it to other Marvel openings, since many of those went out over a three-day weekend. Nor is Madame Web a title in the Marvel Cinematic Universe, which is owned by Disney.

The bright news: at least there are two wide studio releases this week and weekend after a notable slowdown throughout much of January and into the first part of February due to the lingering delays caused by last year’s writers and actors strikes.